Rarely have statistics been misused so much for political purposes as when recently the ECB published the results of a survey of household wealth in the Eurozone countries (2013a).1 From this survey it appeared that the median German household had the lowest wealth of all Eurozone countries.
Are Germans really poorer than Spaniards, Italians and Greeks?
Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji, 16 April 2013
The decoupling of the US and European economies: Evidence from nowcasting
Lucrezia Reichlin, Domenico Giannone, Jasper McMahon, Saverio Simonelli, 29 March 2013
One of the most interesting features of recent business-cycle history is the decoupling of US real economic activity from that of the Eurozone (CEPR 2012, ECB 2013). CEPR's Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee estimates that the Eurozone entered a new recession in the third quarter of 2011, something the US has so far avoided.
Another look at Ricardian equivalence: The case of the European Union
Thomas Grennes, Andris Strazds, 28 February 2013
The so-called Ricardian equivalence suggests that a government will have the same effect on private spending whether it raises taxes or takes on additional debt to finance higher government spending. The logic behind it is that as the government gets more indebted, people would put aside more money in expectation of higher taxes in the future.
Caution to place makers: Greater firm density does not always promote incumbent firm health
William Kerr, Oliver Falck, Christina Günther, Stephan Heblich, 11 February 2013
A common theme in economic geography is that increasing returns to scale at the local level are essential for explaining the geographical distribution of economic activity. These agglomerative forces are often cited as a rationale for policy intervention to attract new firms to areas.
Value-added exchange rates
Rudolfs Bems, Robert Johnson, 6 December 2012
Real effective exchange rates (REERs) are widely used to gauge competitiveness. Yet conventional REERs, based on gross trade flows and consumer price indexes (CPIs), are not well suited to that role when imports are used to produce exports – i.e., with vertical specialisation in trade.
The role of wage setting institutions on wage cyclicality: Some unexpected patterns from Germany
Hermann Gartner, Thorsten Schank, Claus Schnabel, 22 September 2012
Changes in real wages are an important vehicle for an economy’s adjustment to shocks. Discussions on the development of wages during the business cycle, therefore, have a long history going back to Keynes (1936) and beyond. Up to the early 1990s, most macroeconomists believed in evidence from aggregate time series showing that real wages were quite stable over the business cycle.
What Germany should fear most is its own fear
Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji, 18 September 2012
The large expansion of TARGET2 claims and liabilities since the start of the sovereign debt crisis has led to fears that countries like Germany would lose vast amounts if the Eurozone broke up (Sinn and Wollmershäuser 2012)1.
Reflections on the curious contrast of public policies between Germany and the US: Real estate versus human capital
Joshua Aizenman, Ilan Noy, 25 August 2012
During the years leading to the global crisis, the US and Germany were the dominant growth poles in the Americas and Europe, respectively (ADD CITE). Their position reflected their growth performance and their dominant size.
The German labour market: Low worker flows and large volatilities
Hermann Gartner, Christian Merkl, Thomas Rothe, 8 August 2012
Business cycle fluctuations are associated with large ups and downs of the labour market (see Shimer 2005 for the US). The increased probability of losing a job and the reduced probability of finding a job in a recession may be considered as one of the major costs of an economic downturn.
A spread-fixing scheme: Monti's pyrrhic victory?
Paolo Manasse, 2 July 2012
Together with Mario Balotelli, the football player, Mario Monti was heralded in Italy for bashing Germany, in his case at the recent EU summit. For Monti’s supporters, the satisfaction stemmed from achieving an explicit mandate for the EFSF/ESM to 'stabilise' yields differentials by intervening in the primary and secondary market.
- Fiscal consolidation: At what speed?Blanchard, Leigh
- Public debt and economic growth, one more timePanizza, Presbitero
- Escaping liquidity traps: Lessons from the UK’s 1930s escapeCrafts
- The lessons of the North Atlantic crisis for economic theory and policyStiglitz
- Rethinking macroeconomic policyBlanchard
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap: A new modelKrugman
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
Reichlin, Baldwin, 14 April 2013
Reichlin, Turner, Woodford
CEPR Policy Research
- The "Greatest" Carry Trade Ever? Understanding Eurozone Bank RisksAcharya, Steffen
- Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro ZoneFernández-Villaverde, Garicano, Santos
- Winning by Losing: Incentive Incompatibility in Multiple QualifiersDagaev, Sonin
- Income and schoolingBrückner, Gradstein
- Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price BubblesGalí